The player knows that the odds of a shooter making a pass at craps are about 50-50 (0.5). But the odds against a shooter making three passes in a row are only about 7-1 (actually they are 8-1). Therefore, he figures if he waits until the shooter makes two consecutive passes and then bets against him, he will have the odds working for him at 7-1.

1) It is true that the odds against three passes in a row are about 7-1. But it is not true that you are betting against three consecutive passes. You are betting against another pass after the first two have occurred. The odds on the next roll always remain the same. This is because the dice have no memory and what happened on a throw before doesn't affect the next throw.

2) Even if the shooter fails to make three straight passes, you will not necessarily win. If he rolls a 12 on the come-out, it is a loss for the shooter, but it only counts as a standoff on your don't-pass bet. That feature gives the house the edge no matter how many consecutive passes you wait for before betting.

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